<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><rss version="2.0"
	xmlns:content="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/"
	xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/"
	xmlns:atom="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom"
	xmlns:sy="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/syndication/"
		>
<channel>
	<title>Comments on: The Traditional Predictions List for 2009&#8230;</title>
	<atom:link href="http://gwynethllewelyn.net/2009/01/01/the-traditional-predictions-list-for-2009/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://gwynethllewelyn.net/2009/01/01/the-traditional-predictions-list-for-2009/</link>
	<description>Socio-Economical Articles about the Second Life® world</description>
	<lastBuildDate>Sat, 13 Mar 2010 19:52:33 +0000</lastBuildDate>
	<generator>http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2</generator>
	<sy:updatePeriod>hourly</sy:updatePeriod>
	<sy:updateFrequency>1</sy:updateFrequency>
		<item>
		<title>By: Gwyn&#8217;s Home &#187; Blog Archive &#187; Predictions for 2010</title>
		<link>http://gwynethllewelyn.net/2009/01/01/the-traditional-predictions-list-for-2009/comment-page-1/#comment-27018</link>
		<dc:creator>Gwyn&#8217;s Home &#187; Blog Archive &#187; Predictions for 2010</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 31 Dec 2009 11:10:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://gwynethllewelyn.net/?p=658#comment-27018</guid>
		<description>[...] to predict, but, oh well, at least I&#8217;ll be happy to get a few of them right&#8230; although I didn&#8217;t fare too badly last year, I think I got 9 out of 10 [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] to predict, but, oh well, at least I&#8217;ll be happy to get a few of them right&#8230; although I didn&#8217;t fare too badly last year, I think I got 9 out of 10 [...]</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: Second Life 2010 Predictions « Daniel Voyager's Blog</title>
		<link>http://gwynethllewelyn.net/2009/01/01/the-traditional-predictions-list-for-2009/comment-page-1/#comment-26794</link>
		<dc:creator>Second Life 2010 Predictions « Daniel Voyager's Blog</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 15 Nov 2009 00:43:36 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://gwynethllewelyn.net/?p=658#comment-26794</guid>
		<description>[...] The Traditional Predictions List for 2009 [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] The Traditional Predictions List for 2009 [...]</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: Dale Innis</title>
		<link>http://gwynethllewelyn.net/2009/01/01/the-traditional-predictions-list-for-2009/comment-page-1/#comment-25029</link>
		<dc:creator>Dale Innis</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 16 Jan 2009 15:19:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://gwynethllewelyn.net/?p=658#comment-25029</guid>
		<description>Now that I seem to be successfully posting here :) a couple of belated comments:

On #1, wouldn&#039;t the addition of meshes be a pretty a major new feature?  It would certainly change the building experience, and eventually the look, of the world...

On Prokofy&#039;s comments on Twinity: I tend to agree it will last out 2009, but I don&#039;t see it becoming any less boring.  :)  On what measure is Germany the richest country per capita in the world, though?  All the sources that I can find put it down around number twenty...</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Now that I seem to be successfully posting here <img src='http://gwynethllewelyn.net/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif' alt=':)' class='wp-smiley' />  a couple of belated comments:</p>
<p>On #1, wouldn&#8217;t the addition of meshes be a pretty a major new feature?  It would certainly change the building experience, and eventually the look, of the world&#8230;</p>
<p>On Prokofy&#8217;s comments on Twinity: I tend to agree it will last out 2009, but I don&#8217;t see it becoming any less boring.  <img src='http://gwynethllewelyn.net/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif' alt=':)' class='wp-smiley' />   On what measure is Germany the richest country per capita in the world, though?  All the sources that I can find put it down around number twenty&#8230;</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: Guesses for OpenSim in 2009 &#171; justincc&#8217;s opensim blog</title>
		<link>http://gwynethllewelyn.net/2009/01/01/the-traditional-predictions-list-for-2009/comment-page-1/#comment-24959</link>
		<dc:creator>Guesses for OpenSim in 2009 &#171; justincc&#8217;s opensim blog</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 09 Jan 2009 21:31:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://gwynethllewelyn.net/?p=658#comment-24959</guid>
		<description>[...] most of them are pretty conservative (maybe part of me just doesn&#8217;t like to be wrong  .  Like Gwyn, I think that this will be a strong growth year for OpenSim but not a breakout one. Possibly [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] most of them are pretty conservative (maybe part of me just doesn&#8217;t like to be wrong  .  Like Gwyn, I think that this will be a strong growth year for OpenSim but not a breakout one. Possibly [...]</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: cat m</title>
		<link>http://gwynethllewelyn.net/2009/01/01/the-traditional-predictions-list-for-2009/comment-page-1/#comment-24929</link>
		<dc:creator>cat m</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 07 Jan 2009 00:50:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://gwynethllewelyn.net/?p=658#comment-24929</guid>
		<description>I was going to say (again and again) thanks for this great post, but I was reading the comments and went totally silly and keep saying to myself OMFG! That&#039;s M Linden there! So I can not write anything else and can&#039;t resist saying that you got more than Prokofy Neva over there (who just got a M bear). :DDD</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I was going to say (again and again) thanks for this great post, but I was reading the comments and went totally silly and keep saying to myself OMFG! That&#8217;s M Linden there! So I can not write anything else and can&#8217;t resist saying that you got more than Prokofy Neva over there (who just got a M bear). <img src='http://gwynethllewelyn.net/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_biggrin.gif' alt=':D' class='wp-smiley' /> DD</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: M Linden</title>
		<link>http://gwynethllewelyn.net/2009/01/01/the-traditional-predictions-list-for-2009/comment-page-1/#comment-24914</link>
		<dc:creator>M Linden</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 04 Jan 2009 17:28:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://gwynethllewelyn.net/?p=658#comment-24914</guid>
		<description>Happy New Year Gwyn.  Some great predictions/thoughts/ideas/challenges in your post. Here&#039;s to 2009!</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Happy New Year Gwyn.  Some great predictions/thoughts/ideas/challenges in your post. Here&#8217;s to 2009!</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: Gwyneth Llewelyn</title>
		<link>http://gwynethllewelyn.net/2009/01/01/the-traditional-predictions-list-for-2009/comment-page-1/#comment-24904</link>
		<dc:creator>Gwyneth Llewelyn</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 03 Jan 2009 04:12:25 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://gwynethllewelyn.net/?p=658#comment-24904</guid>
		<description>Well, Hiro, on 3. (&quot;Return to the Mainland&quot;), I&#039;d imagine the following scenario:

- announce the new Class 6 servers
- available only on the mainland at first, for the reduced price; later, Class 6 might be available  
- auctions for whole sims start much lower, AND they include Estate Tools
- a new &quot;move back to the mainland&quot; programme where LL will forfeit the moving costs of getting all your sims connected to somewhere in the mainland (using the USS model: allow just one edge to be connected so that the community can expand)
- introduce a &quot;mainland community programme&quot;, where &lt;i&gt;existing&lt;/i&gt; mainland rentals, specially the larger ones (one sim or more), can get a free &quot;upgrade&quot; to Estate Tools (of course, very fragmented sims won&#039;t benefit from that &quot;upgrade&quot;)

That should get the ball rolling :)

Well, for 6., perhaps the problem is with the word &quot;all&quot; :) I mean, what is the percentage of US and UK universities already offering some educational options to their students (and usually this starts with post-docs and docs, not graduates)? I have heard some numbers like &quot;over a third&quot;. In my backwards country, all major cities (curiously, except for Lisbon...) have at least one university already doing that — although this is by far not a third, and most just offer a few courses. Still, &quot;all&quot; might be an exxageration... but I remember when Moodle started to be introduced in the universities, and these days it&#039;s almost &lt;i&gt;mandatory&lt;/i&gt; for &lt;i&gt;every&lt;/i&gt; university out there...

7. True :) hehe. I don&#039;t think we&#039;re seeing any, either. Some existing ones under development will never leave beta testing, or will postpone the launch to 2010... if they manage to survive 2009.

8. By &quot;massively&quot; I&#039;d say that at least half of what LL counts as &quot;regular active users&quot; will use a third-party viewer (note: I&#039;ll be happy if it&#039;s just 10% by the end of 2009, of course — it&#039;ll still show a trend!)

9. A few more offices elsewhere in the world, a few more information (in-world) in more languages, a few more available Liasons and tech support, and a way to make sure that newbies drop on &#039;welcome areas&#039; with the language of their choice (again, quoting wildly from memory, LL at one point claimed that 10% of all new users already came from &quot;communities&quot; — SL Brazil is the typical example, with 1 million registered members — and not from LL&#039;s default login page. What is the percentage today?). At this stage, dealing with newbies on the help islands still faces the barrier of language — although we can usually get the appropriate Mentor easily enough, the newbie will still be surrounded by signs, boards, and people that don&#039;t speak their language at all. So I see the push towards welcome areas done for each different language, and have these clearly labelled the moment someone views the http://secondlife.com site. Right now, the site is only available in 4 languages; it would make a &lt;i&gt;huge&lt;/i&gt; difference to have at least a &lt;i&gt;first&lt;/i&gt; page in several different languages, with just brief pointers to the &quot;right&quot; place to log in. Also, there is plenty of translated information everywhere on the SLogosphere, LL just needs to get permission to use it...

10. was the easiest prediction to make for 2009 :) I got it right all the other years — and this one won&#039;t be different :D</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Well, Hiro, on 3. (&#8220;Return to the Mainland&#8221;), I&#8217;d imagine the following scenario:</p>
<p>- announce the new Class 6 servers<br />
- available only on the mainland at first, for the reduced price; later, Class 6 might be available<br />
- auctions for whole sims start much lower, AND they include Estate Tools<br />
- a new &#8220;move back to the mainland&#8221; programme where LL will forfeit the moving costs of getting all your sims connected to somewhere in the mainland (using the USS model: allow just one edge to be connected so that the community can expand)<br />
- introduce a &#8220;mainland community programme&#8221;, where <i>existing</i> mainland rentals, specially the larger ones (one sim or more), can get a free &#8220;upgrade&#8221; to Estate Tools (of course, very fragmented sims won&#8217;t benefit from that &#8220;upgrade&#8221;)</p>
<p>That should get the ball rolling <img src='http://gwynethllewelyn.net/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif' alt=':)' class='wp-smiley' /> </p>
<p>Well, for 6., perhaps the problem is with the word &#8220;all&#8221; <img src='http://gwynethllewelyn.net/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif' alt=':)' class='wp-smiley' />  I mean, what is the percentage of US and UK universities already offering some educational options to their students (and usually this starts with post-docs and docs, not graduates)? I have heard some numbers like &#8220;over a third&#8221;. In my backwards country, all major cities (curiously, except for Lisbon&#8230;) have at least one university already doing that — although this is by far not a third, and most just offer a few courses. Still, &#8220;all&#8221; might be an exxageration&#8230; but I remember when Moodle started to be introduced in the universities, and these days it&#8217;s almost <i>mandatory</i> for <i>every</i> university out there&#8230;</p>
<p>7. True <img src='http://gwynethllewelyn.net/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif' alt=':)' class='wp-smiley' />  hehe. I don&#8217;t think we&#8217;re seeing any, either. Some existing ones under development will never leave beta testing, or will postpone the launch to 2010&#8230; if they manage to survive 2009.</p>
<p>8. By &#8220;massively&#8221; I&#8217;d say that at least half of what LL counts as &#8220;regular active users&#8221; will use a third-party viewer (note: I&#8217;ll be happy if it&#8217;s just 10% by the end of 2009, of course — it&#8217;ll still show a trend!)</p>
<p>9. A few more offices elsewhere in the world, a few more information (in-world) in more languages, a few more available Liasons and tech support, and a way to make sure that newbies drop on &#8216;welcome areas&#8217; with the language of their choice (again, quoting wildly from memory, LL at one point claimed that 10% of all new users already came from &#8220;communities&#8221; — SL Brazil is the typical example, with 1 million registered members — and not from LL&#8217;s default login page. What is the percentage today?). At this stage, dealing with newbies on the help islands still faces the barrier of language — although we can usually get the appropriate Mentor easily enough, the newbie will still be surrounded by signs, boards, and people that don&#8217;t speak their language at all. So I see the push towards welcome areas done for each different language, and have these clearly labelled the moment someone views the <a href="http://secondlife.com" rel="nofollow">http://secondlife.com</a> site. Right now, the site is only available in 4 languages; it would make a <i>huge</i> difference to have at least a <i>first</i> page in several different languages, with just brief pointers to the &#8220;right&#8221; place to log in. Also, there is plenty of translated information everywhere on the SLogosphere, LL just needs to get permission to use it&#8230;</p>
<p>10. was the easiest prediction to make for 2009 <img src='http://gwynethllewelyn.net/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif' alt=':)' class='wp-smiley' />  I got it right all the other years — and this one won&#8217;t be different <img src='http://gwynethllewelyn.net/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_biggrin.gif' alt=':D' class='wp-smiley' /> </p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: Hiro Pendragon</title>
		<link>http://gwynethllewelyn.net/2009/01/01/the-traditional-predictions-list-for-2009/comment-page-1/#comment-24903</link>
		<dc:creator>Hiro Pendragon</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 03 Jan 2009 03:47:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://gwynethllewelyn.net/?p=658#comment-24903</guid>
		<description>Hmmm... lessee... 

1. Disagree, though I do think it will be limited.
2. Yeah, agree, especially with the big names behind it like IBM.
3. They&#039;re already doing this. So, I don&#039;t think this counts as a &quot;prediction&quot; unless you had some specific new ideas?
4. Disagree. There&#039;s a lot of developers, yes. There&#039;s *not* a lot of RELIABLE developers.
5. Good call! Agree. I think we&#039;ll see a continued trend especially in education.
6. Whoa whoa. Experimenting is one thing, changing university policy, though, is another. That takes for-e-ver. Disagree. I&#039;ll be happy if we see a couple of them offering it to any student.
7. Not a prediction - it&#039;s already a reality. There&#039;s a gajillion virtual worlds out there. Some have already come and gone, too *cough* Lively *cough*. However, VCs are hurting with the economy - they will stick with existing companies and shrink their new investments. I don&#039;t think we&#039;re going to see many more VW&#039;s this year.
8. Interesting. Define &quot;massively&quot;, though. I think you&#039;re on to something, though, then again, LL&#039;s policy for distribution of the browser other than open-source is costly.
9. Not really more than a technicality, Gwyn. SL&#039;s already multi-lingual. What more is there?
10. INDEED!</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Hmmm&#8230; lessee&#8230; </p>
<p>1. Disagree, though I do think it will be limited.<br />
2. Yeah, agree, especially with the big names behind it like IBM.<br />
3. They&#8217;re already doing this. So, I don&#8217;t think this counts as a &#8220;prediction&#8221; unless you had some specific new ideas?<br />
4. Disagree. There&#8217;s a lot of developers, yes. There&#8217;s *not* a lot of RELIABLE developers.<br />
5. Good call! Agree. I think we&#8217;ll see a continued trend especially in education.<br />
6. Whoa whoa. Experimenting is one thing, changing university policy, though, is another. That takes for-e-ver. Disagree. I&#8217;ll be happy if we see a couple of them offering it to any student.<br />
7. Not a prediction &#8211; it&#8217;s already a reality. There&#8217;s a gajillion virtual worlds out there. Some have already come and gone, too *cough* Lively *cough*. However, VCs are hurting with the economy &#8211; they will stick with existing companies and shrink their new investments. I don&#8217;t think we&#8217;re going to see many more VW&#8217;s this year.<br />
8. Interesting. Define &#8220;massively&#8221;, though. I think you&#8217;re on to something, though, then again, LL&#8217;s policy for distribution of the browser other than open-source is costly.<br />
9. Not really more than a technicality, Gwyn. SL&#8217;s already multi-lingual. What more is there?<br />
10. INDEED!</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: Gwyneth Llewelyn</title>
		<link>http://gwynethllewelyn.net/2009/01/01/the-traditional-predictions-list-for-2009/comment-page-1/#comment-24897</link>
		<dc:creator>Gwyneth Llewelyn</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 02 Jan 2009 12:19:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://gwynethllewelyn.net/?p=658#comment-24897</guid>
		<description>@Prok, I should have added point 11. Measures to implement DRM and a way to automatically &#039;bots and malicious SL viewers will NOT appear in 2009...

@Andabata, you&#039;re right. Since LL abandoned the work on their in-world browser and further HTML-on-a-prim development (after the cute feature of being able to point anywhere on a prim — an important step to allow clicking on links — the last news I&#039;ve heard was that LL was dropping Mozilla and trying WebKit instead), we have no clue what is going on.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>@Prok, I should have added point 11. Measures to implement DRM and a way to automatically &#8216;bots and malicious SL viewers will NOT appear in 2009&#8230;</p>
<p>@Andabata, you&#8217;re right. Since LL abandoned the work on their in-world browser and further HTML-on-a-prim development (after the cute feature of being able to point anywhere on a prim — an important step to allow clicking on links — the last news I&#8217;ve heard was that LL was dropping Mozilla and trying WebKit instead), we have no clue what is going on.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: Andabata Mandelbrot</title>
		<link>http://gwynethllewelyn.net/2009/01/01/the-traditional-predictions-list-for-2009/comment-page-1/#comment-24894</link>
		<dc:creator>Andabata Mandelbrot</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 02 Jan 2009 10:32:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://gwynethllewelyn.net/?p=658#comment-24894</guid>
		<description>On the matter of technology features, I think that &quot;share a desktop application on a prim surface&quot; will be a reality in 2009. For two simple reasons: it is something that business users really, really can understand the usefulness quickly; and it is something that Sun&#039;s Project Wonderland has already been doing for a couple of years, and LL needs it to be competitive in internal corporate virtual worlds.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BJS8DGjeGvM</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>On the matter of technology features, I think that &#8220;share a desktop application on a prim surface&#8221; will be a reality in 2009. For two simple reasons: it is something that business users really, really can understand the usefulness quickly; and it is something that Sun&#8217;s Project Wonderland has already been doing for a couple of years, and LL needs it to be competitive in internal corporate virtual worlds.<br />
<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BJS8DGjeGvM" rel="nofollow">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BJS8DGjeGvM</a></p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
</channel>
</rss>
