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Posted in Ping.fm by: gwyneth.llewelyn
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18 Sep

I’m still amazed how the Help Islands continue to be full of new residents, which sign up at a rate of 10,000 new ones per day… and now we know they’re not all bots!!!

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  • Mayren
    That was the single most informative comment i've seen all year! Thank you for that great info. Please continue to use your powers for Awesome. :)
  • Aww you're a flatterer... ty :)
  • Mayren
    uhm .. how do we know they are not all bots or alts?
  • By doing some simple maths :)

    Now that bots are forbidden on the grid, the average number of people logged in, at peaks, is 15,000 less than it used to be. So we know that quite a lot of bots simply don't exist any more.

    If the number of registrations were affected by the huge amount of bots leaving the grid, then we would see a similar drop (15-20%) on the number of new registrations. But that is not the case! Also, remember, this would mean hundreds of thousands of new bots every month... we would be seeing an increase ever month of the simultaneously online residents, but, as said, we saw a decrease. So they're not bots, or mostly not bots.

    They could be still alts. Well. Now imagine, there are about a million active users, a figure that is actually decreasing over time (from 1.4 millions in 2007 to a bit over a million today). So regular users are now less than before (and many of those, as said, were bots!). But 3-5 millions register every year. This would mean that, for the past three years, every active user in SL would have created five new alts per year. Now, we know that LL limits the number of registrations to 5 per IP address. Even though many people create alts for illegitimate purposes and can thus easily subvert the IP address restriction, to explain all these new users, we would have to assume that not only all active residents are creating alts for illegitimate purposes, but they would be creating 4 or 5 every year! Where are all of those alts? :) If you assume that the number of active persons is actually far less than a million, then the case is even worse — you'd have to assume that everybody is creating dozens or hundreds of alts per year, and actively using all of them.

    You could also say, "oh, but the number of fraudulent users of SL is far far less than that, and they are the biggest creators of alts", which would be a reasonable assumption. If we take the usual statistics for RL, only 5-10% of all human beings are actually deliberately violating laws — I know it seems little, but we humans are more honest than the press tends to tell us. So mmmh. This would mean that 50,000 users would be creating 5 million alts per year — 100 alts per year, or one new alt every third day. I find that quite hard to believe :)

    No, the question would be — where are all those alts?

    The more simple explanation, in fact, for the high number of registrations, but little increase (actually, a decrease) of the total number of users is plainly that all these people saw an article about SL, registered, found it too hard to use, or completely against their expectations, and simply never logged in again. This would be consistent with LL's claim that 90-95% of all registered new users never log in again, and a constant worry to M Linden to figure out what to do to regain all those lost residents...
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