Open letter to the BBC
You might have read by now BBC’s shockingly poor article on Second Life (yes, it’s another one of those “SL is dead” articles). It might shock you even more to know that M Linden had given them an interview which was mostly neglected and ignored; Linden Lab graciously published the whole interview since M Linden’s own comment might never make the BBC site.
My own comment might also never make it, either, so I’ll publish it here:
When I got the link to this article, I thought, “oh, boring, another end-of-Second Life-article from late 2007″, which was reinforced by the outdated pictures, showing things from 2005-7 or so (you can see the “age” of the pictures due to a lack of features present in the current generation of the 3D renderer).
Then I saw that the date is actually from November 2009! And it includes a partial, out-of-context transcript of an interview with LL’s CEO! I was utterly shocked — is this truly BBC or a phished site??
Somehow, it looks like the reporter, Lauren Hansen, had written this article in 2005-7, when the media just loved to pronounce Second Life dead, but was unable to sell it to the BBC back then. She then proceeded to fish it out of her drafts, added a few lines from the interview with M Linden, and just sold it as “news”. Wow. This is NOT the kind of articles with quality and thorough research that we’re used to read/see at BBC!
What happened? Half the article deals with events occurring in 2006/7. None of the 1,400 organisations currently in SL is mentioned, except for IBM, who have been co-developing a lot of technology together with Linden Lab — as well as Intel, Sun, and many others (including Microsoft!). Since the “hype days” of 2007, Second Life grew over three times in size and user base. It’s virtual goods economy, worth half a billion US$ today, used to be 4% of the overall market for digital content in the world — if you include ads as “digital content”
(if not, probably the figure would be much higher) — more than iPhone Apps (which the media still consider a huge success). Since the introduction of voice communications in Second Life, the platform became one of the top VoIP providers world-wide (Skype is still #1), and their minutes-per-month continue to grow. Facebook, always seen as a huge success, in financial terms, made half in sales as Second Life did last year — which is not too bad — and posted a net loss of “only” US$50 millions. It was flagged as a huge success. Linden Lab has been profitable for several years, and their profits are over US$50 millions annually, growing every year in a very comfortable way. Sooooo…. nothing of that has been referred (not even M Linden’s official statistics) in this article.
Second Life is empty?! At almost every hour of the day, 24 hours a day, it has almost as many simultaneous users as… eBay! Now let’s imagine that eBay, with its hundreds of millions of articles, would show, on each page, how many people are visiting that specific page. The vast majority of those pages would show “zero visitors” during most of the time of the day (that’s a good reason why nobody shows visitors-per-page
). The same applies to Second Life, which is *huge* in size, but users remain on a limited number of regions. If all users were evenly spaced among all regions, each would have, on average, 2 users/region (in reality, users are clumped together on the more popular places). If the same would happen on eBay… there would be perhaps one visitor per every 1,000 pages/items!! Now *that’s* empty! Nevertheless, it has about the same number of user-to-user transactions as Second Life, with a huge difference: the amount being transacted is way above SL’s average, and, as a result, eBay’s marketplace economy, in absolute US$ numbers, is quite above SL’s. But that’s just because products listed in SL are several orders of magnitude cheaper…
eBay is also way beyond the Hype Curve on Gartner’s chart, but nobody in the media would be insane to consider that it has “died down” (just because it doesn’t attract the media’s attention any longer).
So, why does the media hate SL so much? I just know one reason: surprisingly, stories about “the end of SL” still sell. Success stories are always boring.
The best answer debunking BBC’s article that I’ve read so far has come from Hamlet Au on the New World Notes. He matches statistics and facts with the BBC journalist’s “inventions” and fantasies.
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Yes, bad news is news, even in RL
The BBC is not about news… One can't trust the mainstream media.
Well sure, but the BBC used to have a spotless reputation on good journalism…
I don't think you've slammed this enough, Gwyn. Not because you didn't do a good job, but because it's the BBC. Did they convenient forget about the fact that THEY were THE BIGGEST proponent of the hype? I'm going to do my own. But thank you for bringing this to my attention.
I know we all care about this…but will anyone else? will this outdated sensationalist headline make any difference to what we experience? will it cause a drop in numbers? probably not. shrugs..M needs to be more careful before he welcomes the press, they used his name to legitimise a beat up…and old beat up. And their edited comments just reek of old world, letters to the editor…talk about someone being behind the times….the NYT maybe? the Beebe need to get with it. They don't care though next week someone at the BBC will announce some amazing new thing happening in SL, its all about the headline. thats all.
Do you have a source for the Ebay number? I did some quick digging and Alexa says Ebay has *daily* reach of 2.5% of global internet users.. which is quite a lot.
You're right, Hiro. This was just a short comment
BBC still hasn't approved any comment on the article since yesterday…
Ultimately, you're right, Paisley — news like this pop up suddenly and die quickly. However, in my daily rounds with existing clients and potential clients, they will all point me to this article and ask me if it's true if Second Life is dying, and expect me to say why the article is wrong. It happens all the time the mainstream media reports something like that.
Fortunately this time it's quite easy to debunk… but it's always frustrating. The media has much more power to destroy Second Life than to hype it up, and this is something that editors worldwide have long ago found out — thus their willingness to commission further articles on SL's “imminent death”, always a bestselling article, since, oh, at least 2004.
Oh yes! They have over 2 billion page views per day, over 100 million items on sale, and storage of 4.5 Petabytes, which is massive (Second Life has more items for sale, but they don't have the same kind of listings that eBay has).
I'm trying to squeeze the number out of Google, though. eBay is far more keen to announce that Skype (their fully-owned subsidiary) has up to 20 million simultaneous users than to talk about their current number of simultaneous users… the number I had was from 2007 I believe.
2B page views – let's say each user visits 20 pages (probably less). That's 100M users per day.
… yes, or less than 1200 every second
but that is not the right way to calculate things: you have to take into account the average time a visitor spends on eBay.
Huh – sorry about that, I thought I cancelled the comment. That was the start of the calculations, I did indeed try to account for average visits, I got to some results and after all that I decided that the numbers don't really mean anything
Basically, I think it's apples and oranges. Like comparing M Linden and eBay CEO foot size
Hehe I agree, IYan
The notion of “simultaneous users” might make more sense for Second Life because that's one of the metrics that Linden Lab likes (or Skype!). “Visitors” is still the most old-fashioned metric for websites. These days, “time spent per user” is more interesting to both; we know that on Second Life this is about 1 hour and 40 minutes; on eBay, it went from 1 hour 48 minutes in 1999 to 2 hours in 2008. So it's pretty equivalent (eBay is slightly leading).
I think cost per user and ARPU are the best metrics for both.. but good luck getting the numbers out of both companies
Well said, Gwyneth!
Is dead? But wait, there is new stuff out even now. More SL than ever. You can order your Enterprise Edition (SLE) and install it at home. if you live inside your office
“Because a LOT more people are going to be checking out Public SL now, including companies who prefer a cheaper solution than SLE”
that's so funny! Companies left SL, because of this because of that.
Now there is a standing offer of SL-behind-teh-firewall, and all of a sudden there is love again for – meeting space inside SecondLife, which is cheaper than running dedicated servers hosted inhouse. Go figure.
Maybe it has been a “phished site”. Surely going underwater, in regards of journalistic quality.
Is dead? But wait, there is new stuff out even now. More SL than ever. You can order your Enterprise Edition (SLE) and install it at home. if you live inside your office
“Because a LOT more people are going to be checking out Public SL now, including companies who prefer a cheaper solution than SLE”
that's so funny! Companies left SL, because of this because of that.
Now there is a standing offer of SL-behind-teh-firewall, and all of a sudden there is love again for – meeting space inside SecondLife, which is cheaper than running dedicated servers hosted inhouse. Go figure.
Maybe it has been a “phished site”. Surely going underwater, in regards of journalistic quality.