How my 2010 predictions failed, and what to expect in 2011

It’s that fun time of the year again, when one looks up what predictions for last year actually came to be, and what the new year might us bring. Let’s take a look at what I have predicted last year and see how good those predictions were!

2010

I had cheated a lot last year, since some of the “predictions” were really just a matter of time until they were released, and not really “predictions” in the sense commonly used — predicting what the future might bring. In other words, I deliberately mixed up “planning” the future with “predicting” the future, and that’s why in general I didn’t fail on every prediction!

  1. “Second Life 2.0?, LL’s newest viewer, will be released. Indeed, that one was rather easy to predict. What would be harder to predict was its level of acceptance. We’re at 2.4 now, and although I have noticed a recent increase in the number of users (suddenly, everybody around me seems to be able to “see” Display Names, so that shows a lot of people are using 2.4), I have no idea on how widespread the acceptance is. Back in 2009, I assumed that 2.0 was a “mandatory” upgrade and would be used by everyone, which did not happen.
  2. XStreetSL will be rebranded. Cheating again, I knew that LL would abandon that brand, which is awkward to spell in casual conversation and made little sense except for die-hard SL residents who have been following the history of web-based shopping since October 2004.
  3. Interop will become a reality. Totally failed this one. Not only LL broke up with IBM and Intel before the IETF launched the first draft of VWRAP, and thus the announcement of that draft was pretty much ignored, but LL dropped all pretense of continuing to develop any kind of interop with other grids or other VW vendors.
  4. Work at grid interoperability has not stopped at the standardisation level, and the next milestone is due in 2012. In the mean time, OpenSim grid operators have isolated themselves more and more, although Hypergrid teleporting v. 1.5 was released and showed great promises of seamless intergrid teleporting with all inventory and respecting creator tags and item properties and attributes.

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