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31 Dec

Predictions for 2010

2009 comes to an end, and after the traditional snowball fight with the Lindens, where residents redefine the concept of physics-induced lag by shooting everything in sight with utter prejudice, it’s time to relax, rethink about what went wrong in 2009, and how 2010 will look like.

Keeping in tradition, I’ll try to get my 2010 predictions for Second Life (which are more likely “wishlists”) and see if I can match any with reality (usually I’m far too optimistic!). Some are easy to predict, but, oh well, at least I’ll be happy to get a few of them right… although I didn’t fare too badly last year, I think I got 9 out of 10 right

“Second Life 2.0″, LL’s newest viewer, will be released. Possibly during the first quarter, more likely “late summer”, but this is what it’ll have: dynamic shadows; uploadable meshes; seamless integration between SLURLs and landmarks; HTML-and-clickable-Flash-on-a-prim; and a “dumbed-down” mode when launched for the first time (not unlike the OnRez client which had no “Build” button). I don’t expect anything else but a few minor tweaks and slight interface changes (with possibly a new skin/template engine to make skinning far easier). Everybody will be disappointed, except for new users, as well as content creators, who will love it, even if it means starting to rethink if shadows ought to be baked-in on their newly uploaded meshes…
XStreetSL will be rebranded. I’m quite sure that after the launch of the SL Work Marketplace for Second Life Enterprise users, the next step will be simply to merge both things and rename it “Second Life Marketplace”. There are so many excellent marketplace-construction kits out there (like Drupal’s eCommerce solution, and we know that LL uses Drupal for most of their sites) that it’s simply silly to continue to invest time on the outdated clunkiness of XStreetSL (sorry, Apotheus!). The new website will probably have better search features and delivery options, and LL will allow content from Gold Merchants (analogous to eBay PowerSellers) to be resold to Second Life Enterprise customers as well. Internally, LL will also launch a beta programme for delivery to some OpenSimulator grids, but we’ll not know much about that until it’s launched…
Interop will become a reality. Don’t expect miracles before the year’s end, though. Starting just after June 2010, when the interoperability communication protocol among grids becomes an Internet standard, LL will work together with at least IBM and Intel (and possibly some large OpenSim grid co-location services — which will exclude most of the OpenSim grids people usually talk about) to allow Gold Grid Providers full interoperability with Second Life Grid. This will probably happen in a very controlled environment and involve even more complex contracts than most people expect, but it will finally allow you to shop in SL and teleport to a third-party grid with the full content — without having a single intellectual property issue. (Yes, it means that all content in SL will have an “interoperability flag” on it too.)
VastPark and other similar virtual world platforms will join the OpenSimulator Foundation. Following the lead of realXtend, the companies seriously investing on VW technology which are going through an existential crisis will figure out that their last hope to survive is to make sure that at least their own VWs will not silently disappear and become footnotes in history. This will naturally make the OpenSimulator group even more powerful, add dozens of new talented developers to their teams, and push even harder for interoperability. Blue Mars will believe to be able to continue to be the “outsider” and probably silently disappear in mid-2011 or so — but all meshed content created for BM will then simply be imported to SL/OpenSim by then, and connected to the “metaverse” anyway, so the investment by content creators will be safe.
Linden Lab will experiment with new avatars but not release them yet. Following the lead of realXtend and Blue Mars, LL will start tinkering with avatar meshes, create attachment points for animations, and deal with meshed clothing that folds naturally around avatars. This involves retrieving Ventrella’s code from the freezer and will require so many changes to the existing viewer (including some sort of client-side physics engine) that LL will ultimately deem it’s too big an effort to make it widespread — which would perhaps break 2 billion outfits in the process. Still, machinimists and other specialised uses will possibly use that experimental viewer a lot — and get server-side support from a patched OpenSim.
The “Account Dashboard” will become more and more Facebook-y. This is hardly a “prediction” — the Lab already hinted they’ll will be taking that route. It’s not surprising, since that’s what Kaneva did from the very start. It will allow residents to continue to interact with their SL contacts… without logging in to SL. Technically, it’s easy to implement (again, there are lots of “cookbooks” for doing that using Drupal, and even a few books on the subject; I’ve got a rather detailed PDF on the subject as well). The big issue will be if SL starts to lose interest while people are happily “socialising” on the Account Dashboard instead of logging in to SL…
The European Grid opens. Once interop is in place, a problem gets finally solved by LL: how to have multiple grids with separate asset servers, while giving everybody the feeling they’re in the same grid? So probably the first internal usage will be to have separate asset servers on the Texas and California co-location facilities… and add a new grid co-located on one of the central hubs of the European Internet, namely Amsterdam, where LL already opened offices. The Zindra continent will be immediately pushed to that grid and probably gambling will be allowed… but residents will complain because European regions will be way more expensive
Validation/registration will slowly become more widespread than anonymity. I know my immersionist friends will kill me because of that but it seems to be an unavoidable trend. We’ll still get many options not to publish our RL data, but LL will know it — and use it to deal with issues like third-party viewer releases, ‘bot releases, Gold Merchants, and the like. The new motto will be, “if you’re a real person you’re not a criminal” (which is one of the stupidest lies ever created, but that’s the world we live in…) and this will be encouraged more and more. Meanwhile, people will continue to use anonymous ways to buy L$ and possibly move over to the European Grid which will, by local law, need to respect privacy more (not less!), specially if it’s based in Amsterdam.
Raph Koster will give up his company and start developing virtual worlds in OpenSim. Hah Well, I need to put in a few predictions that will not come true…
Philip Rosedale will finally assume that his new company is really just a front to look busy, but in reality he’s back in SL doing what he likes. Namely, developing complex virtual music instruments — his latest abandoned project in that area is from 2003, and it’s still delightful to play!

Happy New Year everybody!

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extropiadasilva

>reputation is so very much harder to fake.<

Yes, but first you must gain a good reputation.

I have considered doing a Thinkers discussion called 'The Impossible Scope'. As you know, Scope Cleaver has a very good reputation which is often (but not always) all the guarantee he needs to secure contracts. Clients know, from past recommendations of customers, that Scope can be relied on to do the job he is being paid for.

But what if Scope were a noobie with some great talent? Would he be able to start building an exclusively inworld reputation? I am not sure he could anymore. He would have to rely on a personae tied to a RL identity before anyone would trust him. Obviously that was not the case in the past or else Scope would not be pseudonymous today. I guess he was just fortunate to be able to establish an exlusively inworld reputation while that was still possible.

Gwyneth Llewelyn

Oh, that's a very, very good point, Extie. Yes, please do that Thinker's meeting. I'm also curious about what the general feeling might be, but I think you might be right...

Marcus Llewellyn

I don't think #3 or #7 will happen this year. My understanding is that the VWRAP IETF group still hasn't gotten any further than brainstorming in mailing lists. There's not so much as a draft available. These working groups are slow at the best of times... I wouldn't bet on a spec suitable for interop until 2012.

Gwyneth Llewelyn

Dang! Honestly, I hope you're totally wrong on this :) Because I need interop, and I need it now *giggles*

Josue Habana

I hope you're right about Number 8.

Once people get over the massive fear of verifying their age and so on, I think that non SL-ers will come to have a little more trust for SL when it comes to reading about it.

Here's to your predictions... I hope most of them are right!

extropiadasilva

>Validation/registration will slowly become more widespread than anonymity.<

Oo Gwyn, you have done it now! You are DEAD!!

Ahhaha, nooo just kidding:)

BTW, I would question whether RL identity is OUR identity. If I were to go to the um, more 'criminal' websites, I could buy myself a fake RL identity that would convince just about anybody of its authenticity. It is not even all that expensive. ONTH, I think it is a great deal harder to fake a good inworld reputation. So, if I were to do business, I would much prefer to do business with a psuedonymous character like yourself with a great standing in the SL community, rather than some avatar I met 5 minutes ago waving so-called 'RL Identification' at me':)

-Extropia DaSilva- has neither a good reputation OR RL identification.

Gwyneth Llewelyn

See, Extie, you're giving the best example on why this undue attachment to "real identity" is just a mere illusion. At some point, "faking" identities (in the sense of ID cards and the like) will be so easy, that there will be no point in having them as all — while, just as you so well pointed out, reputation is so very much harder to fake.

Except in one case, in my entire live, the only criminals I dealt with were people I had copies of their ID cards in my hands. Let's suffice to say that the police never caught them. The biggest scams upon my person, the largest cons, were perpetuated by the most "identified" persons possible, the ones that had a lot of contracts, lawyers, and the like. On the other hand, the best people I ever worked with I never even knew their names or where they lived. If everybody had the same experience as I had, they would very quickly rethink their priorities...

HIro Pendragon

1. Pretty likely.
2. Logical, but when does logic ever drive name-change decisions? ;)
3. Maybe with identity, guarantee nothing else.
4. Very doubtful. There's nothing for them to gain from this.
5. I saw an avatar engineering position listed on the LL job page last month. I'd say that makes this kind of change at least 16 months out. So, no.
6. Agree. LL's candidly said they want to make it more social networky, and it's a really smart idea. The big question I have is whether there's any API they release to let us play with it and do things with other websites.
7. I have no intell on this. I thought they already have localization servers - or - are you suggesting a new grid with local asset server? Does this then tie into your interop prediction?
8. Probably, but not in the way we imagine. LL sticks close to the lawyers when it comes to restrictions on users and government regulation stuff. And lawyers come up with wacky solutions. (Example: "Games of skill" loopholes for gambling.)
9. Disagree. I'm guessing he's spent his money, and wants a 9-to-5 for the short-term.
10. Heh. Realize he's got a partner in his new venture, and that partner may force Philip to focus on it.
7.

raymondjolly

I like how much mentioning Blue Mars is getting by Second Life evangelists lately. I wouldn't wish it away though. Competition is always good.

I await details of how meshes will work with Second Life. I've seen nothing since that conference demo, which showed the 'Upload' portion; accepting a model file of some format, and the ability to upload High, Medium and Low LOD versions simultaneously.

What was noticeably missing from that preview however was any semblance of a material editor. What we did see was the 'Hulk' imported with a texture on it. No big deal. If the file format was .obj, those often reference a bitmap of the same name in the same directory, so what we probably saw was the model and bitmap uploaded at the same time.

With no material editor though, and thus still no real content pipeline that 3D artists are accustomed to, its a stretch to imply any kind of equivalency between Blue Mars and Second Life when it comes to what content providers work with, what they produce, and what they stand to lose or not lose if either platform was to fold.

Second Life's expansion of 3D rendering tech is great. Big step for it. Small step towards Blue Mars though. The reality of that simply encourages the next step to come however. Similarly Blue Mars will have a lot to catch up to that Second Life does well.

Interesting year 2010 will be. I wish the best for all virtual worlds.

Gwyneth Llewelyn

Yes, me too! LL really needs something to look up to as a reference platform — in the case of Blue Mars, this means setting the standards quite high in terms of rendering quality.

Other virtual worlds will require to look at LL and try to understand why it is so successful. Sadly, though, they seem to be utterly missing the point so far... but we'll see. We still have 361 days to go... ;)

Oct Oyen

Cool stuff Gwyneth,

Direct mesh models import function will be most welcome by the 3D pros. What I don't understand is that why LL didn't do it in the first place, since every objects in SL are mesh based. Perhaps it was LL's attempt to ease up on the servers' loads, but then you have those hair makers who make hairs with millions of polies lol. It would be interesting to see how LL will manage/charge mesh objects. I don't think mesh import will end sculpties.

Global illumination and mesh are the big changes in SL 2.0, but then it runs into the same issue as Blue Mars; which is the high CPU & GPU specs needed to run them at an enjoyable frame rate. As for Blue Mars, I'm not counting them out just yet. CryEngine is an extremely powerful and deep platform, I see Blue Mars has the potential to be a popular gaming metaverse like WOW. It may eventual interlop with PS3 Home and Xbox, both uses CryEngine and has a combined population of 50 million users. Blue Mars may not be able to take much SL residents (who have hundreds and even thousands dollars worth of inventories) from LL. There is the internet generation who grew up with virtual chatroom and video games, they will have a choice when they're old enough to join the "growing ups" metaverses. As a content creator, I'm preparing for both SL and Blue Mars. Needless to say, SL mesh import is a godsend.

Gwyneth Llewelyn

I think you got it right, Oct. But serving one prim is probably way more memory-efficient than a full mesh, since all you need to send over is a bunch of parameters — "prim torture". The client just needs to deal with the data points that create a mesh out of those parameters. Also, I believe that Havok 1 might be way more efficient with prims than with full meshes, and it already had to deal with the relatively complex avatar meshes anyway. And finally, for the casual user, it's far easier to learn to build with Lego stones than with modern 3D modeling tools... it doesn't take an architect to create some relatively good-looking houses with a handful of cubes :) Ease of content creation was on LL's mind.

But then, yes, we got 200-prim hair... :) Not surprisingly, on almost all social VWs, avatars are much neglected (IMVU being possibly the sole exception) and the developer techies rarely give them a second thought. The emergence of the avatar as the ultimate self-expression medium is something that was quite unpredictable during the early SL days... but quickly became the driving factor in innovation. I guess that was also a good argument to get rid of avatars with "thousands of prims" and replace all those by complex meshes, which would be easier to handle...

Some Lindens say that sculpties were really just a "temporary kludge" — a rathe ingenious one! — but not something they would like to continue to invest development time in. For instance, flexible sculpties never became mainstream, although some viewers implement this.

Actually, full meshes won't have the terrible impact on SL that people might imagine it has. The trick is that meshes will take as much time to rez as the number of primitives it actually replaces. The loading might just be a problem. Right now, in fact, each primitive is a mesh — but since it's always the same mesh, I believe that they can be safely stored client-side. A mesh that replaces, say, a building with 100 prims, will require to be downloaded first. No matter how little time that takes, it will take something — but probably as much as a sculpty texture, with the possible advantage that the number of textures loaded for a 100-prim mesh might be less than the number of textures for 100 prims. In terms of rendering, however, it will be pretty much the same. I might be concerned with the way Havok 4 will require much deeper calculation for the meshes (e.g. for collisions), but since LL dealt that when introducing sculpties, I guess it might not be so dramatic. In fact, as you mention, the problem will be if we get more things like uploadable bump maps or light maps for different materials (again, in the sense of making the SL rendering engine come closer to CryEngine) and do all of that dynamically. I'm sure that we'll be able to start measuring the difference of performance by then :)

Ener Hax

not sure much of this will change much for noob growth. nice changes but not so big as to really impact the "experience" imo. who is Ralph? i like him and we (iliveisl) are also doing OpenSim with Reaction Grid - getting very tired of being treated like second class citizens by Linden Lab . . .

Luisa B

happy new year!

new client release will get the biggest one, and probably binding resources allready - when reading last year wrapup on massively, I got same impression. my predictions are zero. oh there's a wish list if that counting.

1) profiles for preferences. it's a pain reloggin', and shuffling arround filesystem located configuration setups just for switching from "photographer snapshot quality preferences" into "everyday use lower impact"
2) changes inside search, according suggestions in VWR-16189

Gwyneth Llewelyn

Oh yes yes on "profiles for preferences"!!! I'd vote for that immediately... is there a JIRA for it?!

Gwyneth Llewelyn

Oh, good news, Luisa — I did find indeed a JIRA for it, and posted your picture on it too (with due credits hehe!): https://jira.secondlife.com/browse/VWR-14751

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Predictions for 2010

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